With the election campaign for the City of Melbourne now in overdrive, we assess who looks likely to take the reins at Town Hall for the next four years in what is becoming an increasing tight contest.
At the time of publishing, all teams competing in what’s become an incredibly stacked field had now finalised all their preferences, providing some key insights and clues as to how the final council jigsaw may fall into place.
At the closure of nominations, 11 leadership tickets had been submitted to the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC), all with associated councillor tickets, while a further five councillor-only tickets had been filed. A further five ungrouped councillor candidates have also nominated.
What the size of the field means is that the nine vacant councillor positions are likely to be filled by those teams running with leadership tickets, with only the faintest chance of the ninth and final spot being taken by one of the few councillor-only candidates.
But starting from the top end of the field, one of the major questions will be just how damaging incumbent Lord Mayor Nick Reece’s announcement regarding selling the council’s share of the Regent Theatre will prove to be …
Cr Reece and his running mate Cr Roshena Campbell took everyone by surprise on September 8 when announcing that their team, if successful, would sell the council’s majority stake in the theatre, with the state government controlling the remaining 49 per cent.
While pledging to use the funds from the sale, understood to be in the order of around $40 million, to establish a Melbourne Arts Future Fund to support the city’s creatives in perpetuity, it’s fair to say the proposal wasn’t received well by many.
Whether voters believe there is merit to the plan or not, it has opened the door for the election to now be turned into somewhat of a campaign to “Save the Regent Theatre” by Team Reece’s opponents.
The following week, Cr Reece’s main opponents in this contest Arron Wood and Jamal Hakim, stood together united in vowing to keep the Regent in public hands. While the circumstances are different, the whole saga evokes memories of the campaign to save the Palace Theatre – one which was ultimately lost to history.
At the final Future Melbourne Committee (FMC) meeting of this council term on September 10, Cr Hakim moved a motion resolving that “the council has no intention or policy basis to pursue” a sale of the Regent. It was ultimately passed.
There can’t be any doubting that Cr Reece must have received a signal from the state government that it supported a move to sell, and the proposal to establish a future fund echoes the council’s recent sale of Citywide to Cleanaway.
It’s also understood that former council CEO Justin Hanney had led an effort to explore a sale of its share in the Regent to help fund a bid for the Nicholas Building, which ultimately wasn’t pursued for economic reasons.
But well intentioned or not, along with the condition imposed on any buyer that it must continue operating the Regent as a theatre forever, Cr Reece’s plan hasn’t proven overly popular – and this could prove significant for a few electoral reasons …
In 2020, his former colleague in previous Lord Mayor Sally Capp managed to poll around 31 per cent of the primary vote. With a strong profile and enough favourable preferences on her side, she would eventually claim victory, but only just.
While the field contesting in 2024 is more packed than it was four years ago, the question will be whether Cr Reece has built up enough profile to record anything close to 30 per cent, and whether voters will punish him for the Regent announcement or not.
And, perhaps most significantly, the Labor ticket competing in this election has chosen to preference Arron Wood over Cr Reece, who despite running as an independent, is a well-known Labor Party member.
It’s understood that Cr Reece’s decision to run with Liberal member Roshena Campbell as his deputy, combined with controversial Labor figure Andrew Landeryou’s controlled “Rip up the Bike Lanes!” ticket corralling preferences to Reece, has infuriated Labor.
Cr Davydd Griffiths, who is again running in the first position on the Labor council ticket, is a well-known advocate for retaining public assets in public hands, so the sale of the Regent would have only fuelled Labor’s decision to preference Arron Wood.
Prior to Cr Reece’s proposal regarding the Regent, it’s fair to say the most provocative policy announcement had come from Mr Wood in August when he pledged to scrap former Lord Mayor Sally Capp’s Greenline project.
While the announcement had cut through among some voters and provided a distinct point of difference between the Lord Mayoral favourites, it didn’t reverberate across the community anywhere near the same degree that the pitch to sell the Regent did.
Head-to-head, Mr Wood goes into the election with Labor preferences which went to Sally Capp in 2020, along with The Greens, Team Hakim, Voices for Melbourne and the Animal Justice Party (AJP).
Cr Reece on the other hand, receives preferences ahead of Mr Wood from Team Kouta, the Liberal Party, Team Morgan and Rip up the Bike Lanes!. How these play out together with what could prove to be a weakened primary vote off the back of the announcement to sell the Regent, will prove critical.
With Labor and The Greens collectively expected to account for around 25 per cent of the primary vote based on the 2020 election, this combined with newcomers Team Hakim and Voices for Melbourne helps put Mr Wood in the box seat.
Mr Wood’s challenge will be increasing his primary vote count from 15 per cent in 2020, but should he manage to boost this to around the 20 per cent mark it’s hard to see him losing with the help of those favourable preferences.
What could prove key for Team Reece is how former Carlton football legend Anthony Koutafides’ team will fare in this election. If one is to compare it to 2020’s “celebrity candidate” for Lord Mayor in nightclub owner Nick Russian, then he may be expecting at least 10 per cent.
Together with the first-ever Liberal Party endorsed ticket, these preferences could add up for Cr Reece, making this contest a neck-and-neck proposition.
Then there’s Cr Jamal Hakim, who while still being an outside “David v Goliath” chance for Lord Mayor, does have a pathway to victory with second preferences coming from The Greens, AJP and Voices for Melbourne. But he’ll need a significant primary vote of around 10 per cent.
The Greens Lord Mayoral candidate Roxane Ingleton can also never be counted out given the party’s history of recording a strong primary vote – in 2020, it recorded more than Arron Wood, who ultimately finished second to Sally Capp on preferences. But this again is unlikely due to the weight of the electoral gerrymander in Melbourne.
Whatever the outcome, it’s sure to be a close contest. Over to you, Melbourne!
